5 swing towns that could predict Maine’s biggest elections

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During the last few days before Election Day, partisans work behind the scenes to expend nervous energy poring over data and comparing their findings to anecdotal evidence.
We will get our final answers on Tuesday. The Maine cities and towns that will be watched closest have changed over the past 12 years, embodying the clashing political trends that have driven the state’s two congressional districts further apart.
These five places have a tantalizing mix of demographic shifts and consequential local races that could make them key bellwethers for Maine and the other places like them.
This twin city has long been to the right of neighboring Lewiston, but it has morphed into a swing area that leans toward Democrats. It was the largest one in Maine to vote for the last three presidents, switching from Democrat Barack Obama in 2012 to Republican Donald Trump in 2016 and then flipping again to Democrat Joe Biden in 2020.
Trump’s margin was only 29 votes eight years ago. Biden beat him by nearly 1,100 during the last election, so Harris is probably favored given that history. Her margin in Auburn could matter a lot to U.S. Rep. Jared Golden, a Democrat from Lewiston who needs to bank votes in his home part of the 2nd District to fend off state Rep. Austin Theriault, R-Fort Kent.
Auburn also has some big local races. Two former state representatives, Republican Bruce Bickford and Democrat Bettyann Sheats, are vying for an open and closely divided Maine Senate seat. Two House seats held by each party also look to be in play there.
This is also a Biden-Trump-Obama town that is likely more of a swing town than Auburn, though it does not get quite as much attention because it is in the reliably Democratic 1st Congressional District. Gov. Janet Mills won it by just under 600 votes in 2022.
Windham has nearly tripled in population since 1970. In recent years, it has been one of Maine’s fastest-growing towns due in large part to its proximity to Portland. It is now almost as big as the state capital of Augusta. This growth has cut against the town’s Republican history.
In 2022, Windham elected state Sen. Tim Nangle, a Democrat, but it split its two House seats between Republican Barbara Bagshaw and Democrat Jane Pringle. Nangle and Bagshaw could find themselves in tight races this time against Republican businessman Kenny Cianchette and Democrat Doris Poland, a bus driver and labor advocate.
There are lots of reasons to watch Sanford. Like Windham and Auburn, it has picked each of the last three presidents. The York County city is a 1st District town with a 2nd District vibe due to its inland geography and history as a manufacturing center.
That makes it notable for the presidential race as well as the one featuring Rep. Lucas Lanigan, a Republican who was arrested just over a week before the election after allegedly strangling his romantic partner as she confronted him over an affair. She said the charges should be dropped.
Early voting has been heavy this year, so there is a chance that Lanigan defeats Democratic challenger Patricia Kidder. While Democrats have called on Lanigan to resign, top House Republicans have demurred by saying the case will be settled in the court. If he wins, they will have to make a decision about whether he should be seated.
Just over a decade ago, Hampden was a free-standing conservative stronghold. It is now voting more like a bedroom community for Bangor. It was the largest of just four towns in Maine that voted for Biden in 2020 after going for Trump in 2016 and Republican Mitt Romney in 2012.
It has hosted some close elections. Biden won it by only 156 votes, then Mills and Golden took it by 58 and 247 votes in their 2022 races. Tighter margins or narrow victories for the Republicans in the presidential and 2nd District races could be ominous for Democrats.
If you like Maine politics, you like talking about Rumford. The mill town is a classic embodiment of why Trump won the presidency in 2016. The ancestral Democratic stronghold went 61 percent to Obama in 2012 before turning on its heel and picking Trump by 9 points in 2016.
It is not completely gone for Democrats. Biden fought it slightly closer four years ago, and Golden won it handily in his last two elections. Further erosion here would be bad signs for Democrats’ ongoing chances in the 2nd District.